Why I don’t believe in conspiracy theories

Originally posted as a Twitter thread on January 19, 2021


Why I don’t believe in conspiracy theories, summarized in a Ben Franklin quote:
“Three can keep a secret, if two of them are dead.”

When talking about large scale hiding of ANYTHING + the auditability of electronic records + human stupidity, natural path is exposure

It’s why there are not aliens stored in Area 51, it’s why the election wasn’t stolen, and it’s why the idea that Florida is wholesale fabricating numbers is nuts. Occam’s Razor and Ben Franklin.

But a counterpoint to this is: can you trust “consensus but unfalsifiable” conclusions? I’m increasing a No. No experiments, not replicable, but social stigma and no funding to oppose:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0399-z

Incentives matter, too.

Old Soviet joke

Originally posted as a Twitter thread on January 18, 2021


Old Soviet joke:
-“Tell me, how many people work in that factory over there?”
-“About half”

Found the original (slightly different from the above) for fellow Russian speakers:

Проверяющий: – Скажите, сколько человек работает на вашем заводе?
Директор: – Если честно, то только половина…

Directly Accessing Government: Fintech’s Final Frontier

Originally posted as a Twitter thread on January 15, 2021


The Internet has many legacies, but its greatest one is disintermediation — taking out the middleman. And the biggest ever disintermediation — of financial services — is coming to an app near you. This is where government should focus:
https://a16z.com/2021/01/15/fintechs-final-frontier/

Governments have monopolies on money and law-enforcement (only the gov’t can legally do those two things, crypto aside!). But there’s almost no way for consumers to interact with central banks! Just like there was no way for consumers to buy airplane tickets w/o travel agents

Want to send a wire? Get access to your PPP loan? Earn interest from the Fed (as banks do via “Interest on Excess Reserves”)? Got to be a bank. Consumers have to go through a travel agent, versus direct. Why can’t your SSN or FEIN be an “account” that can send/receive money?

This is not arguing for “postal banking” or any DMV-style nationalization of banking — which is a terrible idea. But monetary and fiscal policies that require intermediation are simply not as effective as “going direct” — which the internet and fintech allow.

Take interest rates and monetary policy in emerging markets. The Central Bank can/does hike rates to prevent capital flight. Doesn’t really work because banks “intermediate” and don’t provide that rate to consumers…who sell the depreciating currency in favor of USD/EUR.

In many emerging markets, banks hardly make unsecured loans to consumers. They just take deposits and loan to the government. Which is bad for the government, bad for their citizens, bad for their economy, bad for their currency.

More here. Fintech alone can’t solve this — but every single Central Bank should be thinking: how do I go direct? And I would love to see companies and tools (painful as the gov’t “sale” may be) that help facilitate this:
https://a16z.com/2021/01/15/fintechs-final-frontier/

Geopolitical Risk x Networks

Originally posted as a Twitter thread on January 10, 2021


The internet drove instant, rich, free communication in a form humans have never before seen. With that comes good and bad.

*Right or wrong*, when the leader of a country is kicked off a massive communication network, it creates a geopolitical risk that will…

…likely undo this trend and create many regional, more siloed networks. It has to. It’s simply too much risk for another country to allow a foreign private company (or the US Govt which controls this particular private company!) to “control” the means of communication.

I had previously written about this re: payment networks (when I was at Visa, we stopped payment processing in Crimea…per US law). Again, right or wrong, friend or foe, it is TOO MUCH GEOPOLITICAL RISK for countries to allow their networks to be domiciled elsewhere. Fin. https://x.com/arampell/status/1158952157137297410