Category Archives: AI

Delegated Authority, Payments, and Fraud

Previously, there were three different layers of “fraud” (and its corollary, validation) on the Internet. These are important in case a transaction is litigated:

  1. Is this a real identity/user
    Think: this is a valid government document, the profile is real and maps to a government database, etc.
  2. Is the “person” I am interacting with the valid owner of this identity/user/credential
    Think: identity not stolen, so the credential user maps to the credential identity.
  3. Is the person of sound mind to make this decision?
    Think: casino not letting you gamble while clearly intoxicated.

1 and 2 are the most common, but for particularly large “card not present” transactions where issues of friendly fraud arise (“Oh, I never made that OnlyFans or Zynga Poker $10,000 purchase!”) there’s some validation of 3.

Agents complicate all of this. An agent can have delegated authority, but how? How is the whole validation chain preserved for the ultimate transaction? Who bears the risk?

The Principal-Agent vs. Agents Problem

Every human in the workforce has two crude goals:

  1. Be richer.
  2. Be lazier.

Get paid 2x more, or keep salary flat? Get paid more!

Go home at 11:01 PM, or stay up until 5 AM? Go home at 11:01 PM!

This isn’t a moral judgment. It’s just…economics.

Which brings us to one of the stranger problems with enterprise AI: AI can make every employee dramatically more productive without making the enterprise any more productive.

Imagine a Goldman Sachs analyst. At 11 PM, the boss sends over a presentation with the traditional two-word demand: “please fix.”

In the old world, the analyst spends six hours changing fonts, updating charts, reconciling numbers, and moving logos three pixels to the left. The deck is finished at 5 AM.

In the new world, the analyst secretly gives it to AI. The deck is finished at 11:01 PM. The analyst goes home and goes to sleep.

This is obviously a massive productivity improvement for the analyst.

What changed for Goldman Sachs?

Nothing!

The same presentation was delivered. The same analyst is employed. The same salary is paid. The same client is billed. Goldman doesn’t get a bigger fee because its analyst slept six extra hours.

AI created an enormous economic surplus. The analyst captured 100% of it in the form of leisure.

This is the classic principal-agent problem—with a new set of agents.

The enterprise is an ethereal “principal.” It wants more revenue, lower costs, faster turnaround, happier customers, etc. But an enterprise can’t actually do anything. It needs human agents—employees—to act on its behalf.

Now those human agents have AI agents acting on their behalf.

So the chain looks something like:

Enterprise principal -> human agent -> AI agent

The enterprise wants more output per dollar. The human wants more dollars per unit of effort. The AI agent generally follows the instructions of the human sitting at the keyboard.

Guess whose objective function gets optimized first?

This is why AI “adoption” inside an enterprise can be wildly misleading. Maybe 90% of employees use AI every day. Maybe every analyst, associate, paralegal, recruiter, consultant, and salesperson has become 5x more productive.

But if headcount is the same, output is the same, and revenue is the same, the enterprise has adopted AI technologically—not economically.

The employees are richer in time. The principal is not richer in money.

This also relates to a point I made recently: sometimes the user is not the customer.

User = person who actually uses the product.

Customer = person who actually pays for the product.

Normally, user != customer is a strong negative for product quality. If the user and customer are the same person, the product, sign-up flow, onboarding, etc. all have to be great. If they’re different, the customer can force the user to tolerate an awful product.

But AI introduces a different—and more interesting—version of user != customer.

The human agent is the user. The enterprise principal is the customer. And their goals are not necessarily aligned.

The Goldman analyst might LOVE a product that turns six hours of work into sixty seconds. But the analyst might love it precisely because Goldman doesn’t know how much time it saves.

What happens if Goldman finds out that every analyst is secretly producing presentations in sixty seconds?

Two logical options:

  1. The analyst class can be smaller.
  2. The existing analysts can produce 5x more work.

    Both benefit Goldman.

    Neither necessarily benefits the analyst.

    So the analyst has a perfectly rational incentive to use AI—and an equally rational incentive to hide the productivity gain. The best product for the user might be one that the customer can’t see!

    This is also why banning AI inside enterprises will often just create “shadow AI.” If a tool gives somebody back six hours of sleep, a corporate policy memo is unlikely to stop its use. The tool is effectively part of the employee’s compensation.

    The real enterprise opportunity, then, isn’t merely to get employees to use AI. They’re going to do that anyway.

    The opportunity is to get the principal to capture some of the benefit.

    That might mean selling completed outcomes instead of employee tools. Don’t give the analyst a faster way to make the presentation; make the presentation.

    It might mean redesigning workflows around the new level of output. If something that took six hours now takes one minute, the deadline shouldn’t remain six hours away forever.

    It might mean measuring throughput, turnaround time, revenue, resolutions, or other outcomes—rather than counting licenses and declaring victory because “80% of employees used AI this month.”

    And it probably means sharing some of the gains.

    If every productivity improvement results in more work, layoffs, or lower compensation, employees will rationally conceal productivity improvements. If employees participate in the upside—more pay, promotion, flexibility, or even permission to go home at 11:01 PM—they have a reason to reveal what AI can actually do.

    Otherwise, the enterprise will spend billions of dollars buying AI tools that its employees use to work less.

    AI can make the agent lazier.

    AI can make the principal richer.

    The trillion-dollar question is whether it can do both.

    Systems of Record

    What is a System of Record, and what makes some stickier than others?

    A system of record keeps track of the atomic units of a business. Calendars for resources and people (busy vs free), inventory (in stock vs not, delivery dates, costs), personnel (hours worked, vacation days, and salaries), shareholders (ownership, options, and types of stock), etc.

    Some of these items are “static.” Some are read constantly. Some are written and changed constantly. Sometimes there are far more reads than writes, and sometimes the opposite. Some of these are connected to many different “pipes” through APIs or corporate processes; some are used once and virtually forgotten. Some are intermittently read but of tremendous value (e.g., shareholder records!), and some are frequently read but of relatively low value (e.g, conference room calendars).

    Sometimes systems of record bundle these things together, in something that we typically refer to as a “vertical operating system.” ServiceTitan, for example, represents multiple systems of record (or a system of multiple records!). An Air Conditioning business must know its customers (CRM), when its technicians (personnel) are free (calendar), and parts (inventory) that are available for sale, and at what prices (accounting).

    A system of record for the busy/free status for conference rooms in your Miami office? Perhaps a pain to replace, but effectively costless.

    A system of record for tables in your Miami restaurant that grosses $20M a year? Just dropping one hour of records might cost more than the yearly savings of switching to a lower cost system.

    And then, of course, there are systems of record for raw data — literal databases that underpin virtually all systems of record. Ask a CTO running dozens of tables with billions of reads and writes per day how hard it is to swap out a mySQL database for Postgres and you’ll elicit visible anger.

    The stickiness of a system of record is a function of all of these different inputs, against the cost (often front-loaded/one-time) and risk (lost revenue, profits, and mistakes) of moving. Imagine paying $100/month for software where a $1/month option exists, but the one-time labor cost of switching is $3000, and there’s a risk that something goes terribly wrong. It’s quite logical to keep paying $100/month!

    This is part of why greenfields are often superior to brownfields. It’s why finding things outside of the goldilocks zone of pricing, or outside of acceptable satisfaction levels (too hated), is a possible unlock. And as services become the new battlefield, “migration as a service” could *finally* bend the cost/benefit analysis of switching.

    It’s great to be a system of record. I’ve always said that the best companies have hostages, not customers — but the hostages have a lot more tools to free themselves in 2026. Take note.

    AI’s Proliferation Requires a new “Proof of Work”

    The proliferation of AI demands a new “proof of work.” Personalized, intelligent spam is still spam. Personalized, intelligent unwanted sales calls are still…unwanted. Humans “just checking in” can now be superpowered and never drop a ball again…which means all communication is going to be so crowded as to be unusable.

    Bitcoin’s origins date back to a system called Hashcash, proposed by Adam Back in 1997 (“Hashcash was originally proposed as a mechanism to throttle systematic abuse of un-metered internet resources such as email, and anonymous remailers in May 1997”).

    Postal mail requires a postage stamp, and that small cost prevented abuse. Want to send out a billion letters? That’s going to cost you a few hundred million dollars. That explains why you don’t get 1000 pieces of physical junk mail every day.

    But email? Virtually free. Hence subject to abuse.

    Hashcash would force the *sender* to do a certain amount of [then!] CPU work, which the recipient could instantly verify. An intentional asymmetry. 20 seconds to send, .001 seconds to verify.

    It never took off because Bayesian etc spam filtering got better, things like CAN-SPAM were passed, etc. But I implemented Hashcash back in the day, and thought it was the right solution since it used the laws of economics to control the problem. Increase cost, decrease supply. Ensure it’s not worth the cost unless enough economic value is created.

    Fast forward to 2026. AI-powered email, phone calls, text messages, and all other forms of communication are about to explode. And given AI’s “computer use” wizardry, everyone can just have AI use existing systems to pump out more, more, more…and look indistinguishable from humans.

    The Turing test has been rendered essentially obsolete, so we don’t need a better Captcha. We need an economic solution.

    Bitcoin took proof of work and turned it into a currency / a store of value. One option is to simply “charge” per receipt/connection, to create an economic constraint. Another is to force/throttle based on proof of work in a way that hopefully is brute-force GPU resistant — which is the exact same thing as “charging,” but without a currency.

    But we are quickly headed towards a communications catastrophe, and rather than forcing agents to get “smarter” and sneak past more filters (a never-ending virus v anti-virus battle), there’s a real opportunity to create a proof of work standard and use an economic solution.

    Digital Payments are Going to REALLY Grow

    The payments market is going to massively expand over the next decade because:

    1. ANYONE can now build anything digital — AI code creation means exponentially more digital SKUs that can be created and, of course, paid for. We are in the very early innings here. The gating item is just human creativity. It’s not just software. Can you whistle or come up with a tune? Then you can compose music (no need to learn to read music or know music theory). Can you think of an idea for a movie? You can just…create one. Etc.

    Combined with:

    2. Almost anything that was “payroll” (paying PEOPLE) can now be “payments” (paying for THINGS). For example: “Hiring an assistant” or “hiring a paralegal” (both payroll) -> paying for a SKU.

    We don’t think of ADP or Paychex as payments companies because they aren’t; they are payroll companies. Paying people != paying things.

    But more tasks/outputs that were once only available through “paying for people” now become available for purchase on a credit or debit card. This is already starting to happen and accelerate.

    And of course, this is not zero sum! Much of this is “everything to the right” of the supply-demand equilibrium point, where there’s conceptually high quantity demanded at a very low price where there’s heretofore no (human) labor supplied. Lots of people will want to purchase a SKU who were unable to hire a person historically.

    Redoing Education: Lysenkoism and Preference Falsification

    Somebody needs to build a parallel education stack, from top to bottom. The current one is just too broken.

    There’s an incredible new input to education (learn anything for free with AI!) and a very different world in terms of needed skills (and economic realities) upon graduation. Against a legacy cost curve that seemingly is inflating to infinity and is immune to productivity gains.

    Here’s a math course at Exeter and the introductory, mandatory Biology class at Andover. Andover and Exeter are two of the “best” high schools in America, something that other schools try their best to emulate. The kids that go there want to go to a “good” college so must pretend to enjoy / agree with these courses in order to get the grades and recommendations to get into the “good” colleges. Got a C in Biology? Take a stand against the English teacher who generates grades based on vibes? No good school for you!

    The “good” colleges thus are increasingly filled either with people who have excelled at preference falsification and politics, or who genuinely believe in Lysenkoism.

    It’s also why college grade inflation is not surprising. Force everyone to take hardcore quantum mechanics and grades will deflate. But the students who have perfected themselves through superficial perfectionism have a real skill (superficial perfectionism!) and will continue that throughout college and life. It just stops accruing benefits outside of academia.

    Software Clone Wars of 2004, meet AI Cloning of 2026

    History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.

    Before SaaS, and before freemium, there was “shareware” — try before you buy software. This was a concept dating back to the 1980s, where software would be freely distributed on floppy discs attached to PC magazines…dozens of products on one floppy! Written by hobbyists and even upstart companies.

    id Software of Doom fame started out like this, as did McAfee. As did I!

    As things like BBSs, AOL, Compuserve, and eventually the Internet grew in the 1990s, one of the main use cases was downloading shareware.

    And it eventually started becoming a big business. The biggest download site was the appropriately named Download.com, owned by CNET.

    Around the same time, more people in more countries got access to the internet. And this little site called Elance (now Upwork!) survived the dotcom bust and ended up being a leading outsourcing site for everything from translation to, you guessed it, software engineering.

    So now there was a huge opportunity. You pick the number one or even number twenty product on Download.com that’s printing money. You go to Elance. You get dozens of predominantly Indian and Eastern European outsourcing shops to compete / bid on “cloning” it.

    I had a pop-up blocker (how I met @jonoringer), a couple of security products, and a bunch of utilities like a cool macro tool, an email tracker, etc.

    But now I could hire somebody for $500 and have them replicate anything on the top download site on the Internet! It was incredible.

    But it wasn’t. There is such much complexity under the hood that you never see merely by using the product. You see it when designing the product, when receiving hundreds of customer complaints, when realizing how much you could improve your conversion funnel, etc.

    You can replicate something “skin deep” but miss most vital organs. Who knew you needed a Pancreas or two kidneys?

    Elance fundamentally changed the shareware business. Anyone with agency could now hire somebody to clone a product or build a product.

    But here’s what I noticed:

    -cloning almost never worked, because there was too much “dark matter” in these products to be understood or seen when the goal is just rote replication

    -coming up with a NEW idea — much better path, since you have to conceive of all of the myriad corner cases. No free ride to rest on. -technical people still reigned supreme, since they could edit the resulting code from the outsourced shops

    -distribution > product. Now that it was so easy to build (or hire to build!), the advantage went to those with a real knack for acquiring customers. And it couldn’t just be “I uploaded it to the file library” like it used to be in the good old days of the 90s

    Now replace Elance with Claude or Cursor, and repeat this exercise Distribution will rule supreme. Original thought and insight will rule supreme. “Cloning” things at a shallow depth is a fool’s errand.

    Good luck.

    Not All SaaS is the Same

    There are effectively three kinds of SaaS and it seems the (public) markets can’t tell the difference between the three with the coming AI wave.

    Group 1: Software utility is not tied to heads, or if tied to heads not based on those heads delivering an outcome WITH the software. Companies can’t cut back on Workday seats because of AI! Quickbooks is used in small businesses. These systems of record will add AI features which will be accretive to revenue — think background checks for Workday, collections for QuickBooks, etc.

    Group 2: AI potentially lowers # of users of the product but potentially introduces more usage? If you need fewer graphics designers you might need less Adobe licenses, but it’s possible you need more? Or the expanded output and productivity gains of AI increases usage?

    Group 3: Software utility and pricing are DIRECTLY based on heads using software, where AI directly erases heads for the vertical. Zendesk falls squarely in this category. Theoretically CRM could, too. Without a pivot to outcome based pricing, these guys are in trouble.

    But there’s a huge difference between the three. The best companies often have hostages, not customers — and they will maintain pricing irrespective of AI usage.

    There’s another thread of “companies will vibe code their own software” but unlikely for critical systems of record where renting is cheaper than owning (hence the shift to SaaS from On Prem starting 20 years ago!)

    More here on the value of filing cabinets:

    https://a16z.com/ai-turns-capital-to-labor

    Cost > Value as a Model

    Originally posted as a Twitter thread on September 30, 2025


    Cost > Value

    You might not realize it, but you constantly face decisions where cost is more than value — and you do not proceed.

    I recently stayed at a hotel where I left my (stinky) gym clothes in the room by mistake. $50 of clothes. Look at the cost to ship them back:

    There’s just no scenario where this action makes sense. The cost is more than the value and because it’s overseas shipping, there’s likely no hidden margin that would unlock this. Cost is just always going to be more than value.

    Of course I have to make this about AI 🙂

    What is SO exciting about many AI companies is they are flipping cost and value. Can every business have a multilingual omniscient receptionist? Sure, but that would have been too much cost for too little value.
    Now it works!

    Which is why the “AI will take all the jobs” narrative rings somewhat hollow based on what I’m seeing. Where AI Applications are really working is where suddenly value > cost. It’s replacing inertia — a world where cost > value for a seemingly infinite group of things.

    AI Commerce

    Originally posted as a Twitter thread on August 29, 2025


    How will AI commerce start?

    Sometimes the best way to predict the future is to observe the present.

    Millions of people who value their money more than their time already hunt or wait for deals.

    Including me:) I had an alert for Spindrift, it cleared my price, and I bought.

    All that is missing from this example is the “do it for me” — as in “BUY it for me when this item clears a specific price”

    There’s no question that “buy this SKU for me at the lowest price” (already an observed behavior for those who value money > time) will migrate to AI

    More in this piece from @venturetwins and me:

    https://a16z.com/ai-x-commerce/