The payments market is going to massively expand over the next decade because:

1. ANYONE can now build anything digital — AI code creation means exponentially more digital SKUs that can be created and, of course, paid for. We are in the very early innings here. The gating item is just human creativity. It’s not just software. Can you whistle or come up with a tune? Then you can compose music (no need to learn to read music or know music theory). Can you think of an idea for a movie? You can just…create one. Etc.

Combined with:

2. Almost anything that was “payroll” (paying PEOPLE) can now be “payments” (paying for THINGS). For example: “Hiring an assistant” or “hiring a paralegal” (both payroll) -> paying for a SKU.

We don’t think of ADP or Paychex as payments companies because they aren’t; they are payroll companies. Paying people != paying things.

But more tasks/outputs that were once only available through “paying for people” now become available for purchase on a credit or debit card. This is already starting to happen and accelerate.

And of course, this is not zero sum! Much of this is “everything to the right” of the supply-demand equilibrium point, where there’s conceptually high quantity demanded at a very low price where there’s heretofore no (human) labor supplied. Lots of people will want to purchase a SKU who were unable to hire a person historically.