Category Archives: Medicine

COVID Insanity and Religion

Originally posted as a Twitter thread on February 20, 2021


Covid rules, beliefs, and passions are a 21st century religion, with orthodoxy, heretics, and apologists.

Religion once incorporated “all answers to the unknown.” Why does the sun rise? Where did we come from? What is right and wrong? What happens when we die?

Then came science, which is about falsifiable, testable, reproducible hypotheses. “I like the color blue” isn’t falsifiable/testable, nor are questions of morality. “The earth rotates due to preservation of angular momentum” is. So is “the earth is flat” (it was falsified).

“You can’t sit on a park bench” or “You can’t eat inside unless it’s at an airport” isn’t science without *setting and testing a hypothesis.* It’s an insult to science. Some follow these rules blindly. Some fight them blindly. Some make them blindly. It’s religion.

America is a land of many religions and levels of observance. It’s remarkable how these psychographic traits manifest in terms of calls for enforcement (“he’s not wearing a mask over his nose! Call the cops!”), calls for denial (“Bill Gates vaccine mind control”) etc

What I find fascinating is how many secular people have embraced orthodox Covid religion, whereas how many very religious people have wholly rejected it. What is the reason?

Conformists and skeptics are but two types — there are also those who craft the laws, those who hypocritically violate while endorsing them, those who pretend to believe out of fear, etc. All this has tons of past precedent through our millennia of experience with religion…

My biggest concern is that when “science” is thrown around without being science, it casts doubt on other things that emerge as part of the actual scientific method. Throw in probability and it gets even worse/easier for people to throw out anything coming from “science”

There ARE a lot of fake claims out there. Vaccines and autism. 5G and cancer. Those on the side of actual science should be offended — and fight hard! — against the bastardization of the term science and “Covid Religion”…because we are heading towards “boy who cried wolf”

Why I don’t believe in conspiracy theories

Originally posted as a Twitter thread on January 19, 2021


Why I don’t believe in conspiracy theories, summarized in a Ben Franklin quote:
“Three can keep a secret, if two of them are dead.”

When talking about large scale hiding of ANYTHING + the auditability of electronic records + human stupidity, natural path is exposure

It’s why there are not aliens stored in Area 51, it’s why the election wasn’t stolen, and it’s why the idea that Florida is wholesale fabricating numbers is nuts. Occam’s Razor and Ben Franklin.

But a counterpoint to this is: can you trust “consensus but unfalsifiable” conclusions? I’m increasing a No. No experiments, not replicable, but social stigma and no funding to oppose:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0399-z

Incentives matter, too.

“Silicon Valley Does X”

Originally posted as a Twitter thread on January 08, 2019


“Silicon Valley Does X” — what does it mean? It *DOES NOT* (or should not) mean “same thing HQ’d in high cost of living SF.” It means a true first principles approach to re-inventing a stagnant industry, process, and way of thinking.

The philosophical burden of proof is often described as “he/she who brings the claim supplies the proof” (or this, by Carl Sagan: “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”) This is *very* relevant for “Silicon Valley Does X.”

There is often little evidence for *current* positions (outside of precedent) and consequently “Silicon Valley Does X” is pilloried for bothering to re-examine and re-think orthodoxy.

Any industry trusting random humans to make uniformly optimal decisions with little or no feedback loop — now THAT is an extraordinary claim, requiring extraordinary evidence! So industries like real estate, medicine, investing, lending, etc

Real estate: “this agent knows the best stager and it will make your house sell for more” …proof?

Medicine: “don’t screen for X, too many false positives” (best way to solve that is to…collect more data! look at longitudinal changes!)

Education: “you can’t learn from a computer screen / credentials are everything”…really?

“Silicon Valley Does X” is about challenging assumptions, and often exposing that those assumptions are themselves not evidence based. And guess what? Sometimes the orthodoxy is right…

…but we should be grateful that there are entrepreneurs willing to risk failure and challenge it.