Software Clone Wars of 2004, meet AI Cloning of 2026

History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.

Before SaaS, and before freemium, there was “shareware” — try before you buy software. This was a concept dating back to the 1980s, where software would be freely distributed on floppy discs attached to PC magazines…dozens of products on one floppy! Written by hobbyists and even upstart companies.

id Software of Doom fame started out like this, as did McAfee. As did I!

As things like BBSs, AOL, Compuserve, and eventually the Internet grew in the 1990s, one of the main use cases was downloading shareware.

And it eventually started becoming a big business. The biggest download site was the appropriately named Download.com, owned by CNET.

Around the same time, more people in more countries got access to the internet. And this little site called Elance (now Upwork!) survived the dotcom bust and ended up being a leading outsourcing site for everything from translation to, you guessed it, software engineering.

So now there was a huge opportunity. You pick the number one or even number twenty product on Download.com that’s printing money. You go to Elance. You get dozens of predominantly Indian and Eastern European outsourcing shops to compete / bid on “cloning” it.

I had a pop-up blocker (how I met @jonoringer), a couple of security products, and a bunch of utilities like a cool macro tool, an email tracker, etc.

But now I could hire somebody for $500 and have them replicate anything on the top download site on the Internet! It was incredible.

But it wasn’t. There is such much complexity under the hood that you never see merely by using the product. You see it when designing the product, when receiving hundreds of customer complaints, when realizing how much you could improve your conversion funnel, etc.

You can replicate something “skin deep” but miss most vital organs. Who knew you needed a Pancreas or two kidneys?

Elance fundamentally changed the shareware business. Anyone with agency could now hire somebody to clone a product or build a product.

But here’s what I noticed:

-cloning almost never worked, because there was too much “dark matter” in these products to be understood or seen when the goal is just rote replication

-coming up with a NEW idea — much better path, since you have to conceive of all of the myriad corner cases. No free ride to rest on. -technical people still reigned supreme, since they could edit the resulting code from the outsourced shops

-distribution > product. Now that it was so easy to build (or hire to build!), the advantage went to those with a real knack for acquiring customers. And it couldn’t just be “I uploaded it to the file library” like it used to be in the good old days of the 90s

Now replace Elance with Claude or Cursor, and repeat this exercise Distribution will rule supreme. Original thought and insight will rule supreme. “Cloning” things at a shallow depth is a fool’s errand.

Good luck.

Cheat Code: Try to Pay More

When I was running my little “shareware” business in college, I hired my first PR firm. Press really moved the needle for us (credibility and reach), and I wanted more. This PR firm had some very big name clients and lots of connectivity to the journalists and publications we cared about.

There was a monthly retainer, something like $10,000, and I fought hard to negotiate it down to something like $5,000. Almost immediately I was disappointed. I was getting almost nothing from them.

But of course I wasn’t. The firm only had so many favors they could call in. Should they use them on their biggest customer, or their smallest one? I was their smallest one.

I had an epiphany: Don’t negotiate down. Negotiate up. Try to be the highest paying customer.

I fired them, met with this Boston firm named fama PR, told them I wanted to be their highest paying client, and asked them point blank what that would take. I was a college kid and they probably thought this was funny, but we worked out a plan by which I’d pay them $40-$60K+/month (in 2003!) for certain performance.

If I remember correctly, we had different tiers: get us on The Today Show and that’s $10K, front page of USA Today/NYT/WSJ also $10K, lesser tier $5K, etc.

We launched this product called DidTheyReadIt in May 2004, and it was on the front page of USA Today, and then Carl Quintanilla came out to interview me for The Today Show. And many more. I still have the PR book they built of all of the appearances. It was insane.

Mission accomplished: biggest client.

The moral of the story is you get what you pay for. There are related learnings, too. The principal-agent problem is real. Shared services with no currency are hard. Let’s dive into those.

This played out many years later when hiring tech recruiters who typically take a percentage of first year salary (of the placed employee). They might take 15-30% depending on the market.

Remember what a tech recruiter does. They often find a really good candidate and peddle him/her to every company to maximize the chance of earning their fee. (In many cases, they’ll send cold emails about this — “I have 4 amazing candidates!”).

At TrialPay we once lost a REALLY good candidate and learned that our recruiter (who sent us the candidate!) was ACTIVELY selling him to reject our HIGHER offer and instead take an offer from another company! What the hell? My team was so pissed.

But of course this happened. We had smartly (and stupidly) negotiated the fee down. Let’s say we offered the engineer $150K, the other company offered the engineer $140K, and you’re the recruiter — would you rather get 30% of $140K, or 15% of $150K?

Was this unethical of the recruiter? Yes. Is this how the world works? Also yes.

You get what you pay for. The world is a competition and you are better off maximizing outputs versus minimizing inputs.

How To Sell and Raise Awareness

There are only two jobs at an early stage startup: Making the product, and selling the product. That’s it.

Here’s how to sell the product.

Contrary to popular belief and movies that lionize sales: You can’t sell until somebody is ready to buy. And you don’t know when they’re ready to buy.

Every other human brain is (to you) a random number generator. Once a year it might fire “1” (yes). Your job is to make sure you show up around this time, or are remembered such that they call YOU when it fires a “1”. Most of the time it’s a “0.” Sometimes people only change their mind when enough time has passed, irrespective of data (https://www.arampell.org/2023/09/01/when-to-escalate-vs-wait/).

Bother the person every day and they’ll get a restraining order. Hire an Ivy League kid afraid of rejection who nudges them once every 5 years, and they’ll forget who you are when their brain (or circumstances) finally says “yes.”

We consequently had a rule: everyone should hear from us once a month. You need to mix up the way people hear from you. We had light, medium, and heavy. Light might be a personalized email or forwarded news article. Medium would be an in person visit (often “I happen to be in the area…”). Heavy would be an event or gift.

This rule applied to current customers (account management), prospects (sales), and strategic partners (see my thread on selling your company: https://www.arampell.org/2023/01/04/how-to-sell-your-company/). Everyone must hear from you every month or on some regular cadence.

One year at TrialPay we were sending out very nice, customized gift boxes. It seems kind of cruel to throw away a plant (versus, say, a cheap mug or t-shirt), and nobody can kill a cactus since they can survive in a desert. So we sent everyone a cactus in a blue, dinosaur TrialPay pot. When visiting customers for years to come, I always saw that pot. When their brain said “maybe I should use that alternative payments thing” there was a cactus staring at them with our logo, and likely an email within a few weeks.

If you’re selling to somebody important, you need to remember they are overloaded and you are their last priority, but there’s a secret way in: the Executive Assistant. My dad taught me this trick. Send a nice gift to every EA every year and you’ll be stunned at the results.

The former President of PayPal once took a 6 week sabbatical and when he came back he was stunned that I was the first meeting on his calendar. We had breakfast and his first words: “How the f*** did you become the first meeting on my first day back?” I smiled.

The way to model most big company behavior: anyone can say NO, but nobody can say YES. How do you get to yes?

You need to sell horizontally; everything above applies to probably 5-10 people in the organization you are selling into. You need to prevent the NO from crashing the party.

Next: building awareness. As I’ve mentioned, normally you can’t sell to the CEO since your product is likely not one of their top priorities:

https://www.arampell.org/2018/01/13/dont-just-sell-to-the-ceo/

https://www.arampell.org/2022/12/08/the-goldilocks-zone-of-cost-irrelevance/

We had tons of competition, companies that did the exact same thing as we did, making all sorts of grandiose claims.

So my job, as CEO, was to position us and myself as an expert in the space. How? By ensuring that we became the source of truth for the press, and an “expert” to the CEO’s actual bosses: Wall Street and analysts.

Since I was trying to both make the term “transactional advertising” a thing and get through to PayPal, I reached out to every single analyst who covered eBay. Cold (and once a month until they responded!), but with lots of thoughts around where payments were going.

It was pretty cool when one of them eventually asked the CEO of eBay what his plans with transactional advertising were. “You mean…like…Alex Rampell’s company?” Boom. Inception.

The same applied for the press. I once was told that the Press never wants to be too fawning over any particular subject, such that they’d have to write something bad about Mother Teresa just to be balanced. We got great one-off standalone articles in the NYT and WSJ about us, but what now?

The answer: come up with a metric that YOU OWN. Who could uniquely talk about conversion rate for Facebook games? TrialPay! Or abandoned shopping cart rates. Etc. Thus rather than having a standalone piece, my goal was to have an “According to TrialPay…” in every single article.

And then these press pieces were fed into the “once a month” engine. You need to assume that NOBODY reads these (statistically true!), so your job is to use them as external credibility and sheepishly send them out, include them in marketing collateral, etc.

Because when you have a 5 horse race and you need to win, you need to SHOW that you’re the market leader with external validation, and you can’t get caught up in the lies of marketing collateral where everyone CLAIMS to have features X, Y, and Z or even customers A, B and C.

Lastly, for most products, there’s plenty of selling that needs to happen AFTER you’ve sold. Your existing customers should still hear from you (at least) once a month, and you should set clearly defined goals for your account management team. More on that later.

Not All SaaS is the Same

There are effectively three kinds of SaaS and it seems the (public) markets can’t tell the difference between the three with the coming AI wave.

Group 1: Software utility is not tied to heads, or if tied to heads not based on those heads delivering an outcome WITH the software. Companies can’t cut back on Workday seats because of AI! Quickbooks is used in small businesses. These systems of record will add AI features which will be accretive to revenue — think background checks for Workday, collections for QuickBooks, etc.

Group 2: AI potentially lowers # of users of the product but potentially introduces more usage? If you need fewer graphics designers you might need less Adobe licenses, but it’s possible you need more? Or the expanded output and productivity gains of AI increases usage?

Group 3: Software utility and pricing are DIRECTLY based on heads using software, where AI directly erases heads for the vertical. Zendesk falls squarely in this category. Theoretically CRM could, too. Without a pivot to outcome based pricing, these guys are in trouble.

But there’s a huge difference between the three. The best companies often have hostages, not customers — and they will maintain pricing irrespective of AI usage.

There’s another thread of “companies will vibe code their own software” but unlikely for critical systems of record where renting is cheaper than owning (hence the shift to SaaS from On Prem starting 20 years ago!)

More here on the value of filing cabinets:

https://a16z.com/ai-turns-capital-to-labor

First Principles on Lending…

Original Posted: https://x.com/arampell/status/1893883095646093315?s=20

From first principles: If you ask me to loan you $100, and I think there’s a 50% chance you don’t pay me back, I should only make the loan if I get $200 back. Otherwise, I shouldn’t make the loan! And you won’t get the loan.

The A in APR is Annual, so even if I think there’s only a 10% chance you don’t pay me back, and the loan is a week long, the APR will be enormous on a percentage basis, but only $11.11 on a dollar basis (.9 [probability] X Repayment = $100, so Repayment = $111.11)

That’s a nominal APR of 577% (or a compounded rate of 23,900%).Should that be “illegal”? If you want to restrict access to credit, then yes. I think most people would say that being able to loan their friend $100 to get back $111.11 the next week when their friend is only 90% reliable…should be perfectly fine…particularly when both parties opt in.

These headlines always miss the fact that most Americans don’t have good access to credit and more competition is the best way of lowering costs, not forcing banks to make money-losing loans (that doesn’t work!) or making it hard to start new companies to compete (the CFPB enjoyed doing that)

The platform (almost always) wins

Originally posted as a Twitter thread on November 10, 2025


The platform (almost always) wins

The spreadsheet was invented in 1979 by VisiCalc. VisiCalc lost 50% marketshare within 4 years to Lotus, and Microsoft obliterated Lotus within 15 years.

These “creative destruction” cycles used to take decades. With AI, they can take…months?

Cloud and mobile made distribution almost instantaneous, and AI makes the creation of software faster than ever in history.

Which is why moats really do matter, and why systems of record rule supreme. The good news is that there are new systems of record just waiting to be built…for industries that just never had them before.

https://a16z.com/fruits-of-the-walled-garden/

https://a16z.com/ai-turns-capital-to-labor/

Cost > Value as a Model

Originally posted as a Twitter thread on September 30, 2025


Cost > Value

You might not realize it, but you constantly face decisions where cost is more than value — and you do not proceed.

I recently stayed at a hotel where I left my (stinky) gym clothes in the room by mistake. $50 of clothes. Look at the cost to ship them back:

There’s just no scenario where this action makes sense. The cost is more than the value and because it’s overseas shipping, there’s likely no hidden margin that would unlock this. Cost is just always going to be more than value.

Of course I have to make this about AI 🙂

What is SO exciting about many AI companies is they are flipping cost and value. Can every business have a multilingual omniscient receptionist? Sure, but that would have been too much cost for too little value.
Now it works!

Which is why the “AI will take all the jobs” narrative rings somewhat hollow based on what I’m seeing. Where AI Applications are really working is where suddenly value > cost. It’s replacing inertia — a world where cost > value for a seemingly infinite group of things.

AI Commerce

Originally posted as a Twitter thread on August 29, 2025


How will AI commerce start?

Sometimes the best way to predict the future is to observe the present.

Millions of people who value their money more than their time already hunt or wait for deals.

Including me:) I had an alert for Spindrift, it cleared my price, and I bought.

All that is missing from this example is the “do it for me” — as in “BUY it for me when this item clears a specific price”

There’s no question that “buy this SKU for me at the lowest price” (already an observed behavior for those who value money > time) will migrate to AI

More in this piece from @venturetwins and me:

https://a16z.com/ai-x-commerce/

Help Wanted? Hire my software!

Originally posted as a Twitter thread on October 08, 2024


Help Wanted? Hire my software!

Airbnb famously grew by “[growth] hacking” Craigslist — automatically responding to listings to encourage a cross-listing to Airbnb:

https://hackernoon.com/how-airbnb-hacked-craigslist-for-viral-growth-24l35eg

As software “becomes” labor (https://a16z.com/ai-turns-capital-to-labor/), we will see similar hacks to sell software — responding to job postings with software products that do a meaningful percentage of the job’s responsibilities. “I know you’re looking for a ‘Bachelor’s Degree preferred with 5 years of experience X’, but our AI-powered software product can do everything you need, is fully trained, and only costs $20,000/year…and can start tomorrow.”

Try going through Craigslist or Monster for job listings — and notice for each job how many of the responsibilities could be done with AI *in its current form* or where AI will be very soon, particularly with more integrations…here’s a local optometrist:

One of my favorite restaurants where I live uses *zero* system for reservations. You have to call, they’re closed in the morning, and the number is always busy during peak dining times. I asked the owner — why not use an online reservation system? They’re so inexpensive now!

His answer: “We are *always* at capacity. We have never had a day where our tables are not full. This would just be an additional expense, and the employee who answers the phone is needed to greet/seat diners anyway — so the reservation taking has no extra cost.”

I asked him: “What if she retires or quits?”
“Well, then I’d hire somebody else”
“What if a software products could do everything she did, for half the cost, spoke 100 languages, never called in sick, and was never late. Would you hire that ‘product’?”
“That sounds crazy, but I guess?”

We’ve already started to see some of this. AI-powered products focused on specialized “complex workflows” are taking on tasks like the ones seen in the prior Optometrist advertisement. And some technology-laggards are adopting these tools first because (like with my restaurant example) they’ve just avoided tech because it’s felt like an extraneous expense…

Musings of an optimistic skeptic